China Releases Vietnamese Fishermen Seized Near Paracel Islands

By Beth Thomas

Aug. 12 (Bloomberg) -- China freed Vietnamese fishermen detained near the disputed Paracel Islands in the South China Sea after Vietnam requested their release.

Chinese authorities yesterday informed Vietnam’s embassy in Beijing that they had released all the fishermen, who were detained aboard three fishing boats, Le Dung, a spokesman for Vietnam’s Foreign Affairs Ministry, said in a statement.

The seamen are expected to arrive home in the next few days, he added.

Thirteen Vietnamese fishermen from the central coastal provinces of Quang Ngai and Khanh Hoa were arrested near the Paracel Islands on Aug. 1 while seeking shelter to avoid a storm, the Quang Ngai government said Aug. 4. Twelve other men working on two boats from Quang Ngai were detained earlier, Hanoi-based Dung said in the statement.

The Vietnamese authorities are working with China to solve “outstanding problems,” Dung said in the statement.

The Paracel and Spratly Islands are claimed in whole or part by Vietnam, China, the Philippines, Taiwan, Vietnam, Malaysia and Brunei.

Vietnam seeks funds for Agent Orange victims

HANOI, Aug 10 (Reuters) - Vietnam launched an "Orange Day" campaign on Monday to raise funds for people it says suffered through the spraying of Agent Orange herbicide by American forces during the war, for long an irritant in relations.

Vietnam and the United States disagree over the impact of the dioxin-laced herbicides, millions of gallons of which was sprayed on Vietnamese jungles by U.S. forces from the early 1960s until the early 1970s in an attempt to deny Communist troops cover.

On Sunday, more than 10,000 people, some in wheelchairs, paraded through downtown Ho Chi Minh City in support of Agent Orange victims and "poor people with disabilities", newspaper Saigon Giai Phong reported.

Vietnam's English state-TV channel VTV4 planned to broadcast Agent Orange-related programmes all day, and the campaign's organisers hoped to raise $3.4 million for shelters, scholarships and vocational training through a range of activities.

The launch date, Aug. 10, marked the day Agent Orange was first used 48 years ago, state media reported.

Hanoi says the defoliants, nicknamed "Agent Orange" from the orange stripe on the barrels in which they were stored, have caused 400,000 deaths and millions of cases of cancer and other ailments. It says 4.8 million people were exposed.

The United States is involved in a project to assess and help clean up dioxin "hot spots" in the central city of Danang and is helping fund services to the disabled community in that area.

Many U.S. veterans exposed to the defoliant have complained for years about a variety of health problems.

Last month, a U.S. Institute of Medicine panel said a study had found that Agent Orange may raise the risk of heart disease and Parkinson's disease, but it said the evidence was far from definitive.[ID:nN24481722]

The findings added to the list of conditions that could be linked to the defoliants, including leukaemia, prostate cancer, type II diabetes and birth defects in the children of veterans.

In March, the U.S. Supreme Court let stand the dismissal of lawsuits by Vietnamese nationals and U.S. veterans against Dow Chemical Co (DOW.N), Monsanto Co (MON.N) and other chemical makers over the use of Agent Orange.

In 1984, seven chemical companies, including Dow and Monsanto, agreed to a $180 million settlement with veterans.

Vietnam capital closes schools to stop H1N1 spread

HANOI, Aug 7 (Reuters) - Authorities in Vietnam's capital, Hanoi, have effectively closed the schools in the city to try to prevent the spread of H1N1 flu, which has infected more than 1,000 people in Vietnam and killed one so far.

A circular by the Hanoi education department said that, effective Friday, schools must "immediately stop every activity that involves gathering students".

The new school year is scheduled to begin as planned on Aug. 17, it said, but some schools had started early and summer classes were in session at many others.

Three schools in Hanoi had reported students infected with the H1N1 virus, the news Web site VNexpress.net said. H1N1 cases have been reported in all regions of the country.

In its latest update last week, the World Health Organisation reported 162,230 confirmed cases and 1,154 deaths from the virus. Flu experts said this probably reflected only a fraction of the true count as not every patient can be diagnosed with a lab test.

Vietnamese Trade Deficit Narrows Through July; Inflation Eases

By Jason Folkmanis

July 24 (Bloomberg) -- Vietnam’s trade deficit narrowed, providing potential support for a currency hurt by concerns that stockpiling of dollars is making it difficult to pay for imports.

The trade gap shrank 78 percent in the seven months through July to $3.4 billion from $15.2 billion in the same period a year earlier, the General Statistics Office said in Hanoi today. Inflation eased this month to a five-year low of 3.3 percent.

Any re-widening of the trade deficit as the economy gathers steam would be a concern for the exchange rate of the dong, which is currently “fragile but stabile,” according to HSBC Holdings Plc. The prospect of a wider gap may be quickening the depreciation of the currency, Dragon Capital said this month.

“Figures like this shouldn’t serve as a catalyst to trigger a run on the currency,” said Matt Robinson, an economist at Moody’s Economy.com in Sydney. “We’re not at that threshold point. But the underlying issue and the specter of a run is a clear and present danger that Vietnam faces.”

The dong declined to a record low of 17,862 against the U.S. currency this week, using the so-called official rate. Steelmakers this month asked the government for help in getting hold of the dollars they need to pay for imports, according to the Vietnam Steel Association.

“You have to pay more than the official rate to get dollars,” said Alan Young, chief operating officer of Vietnam Industrial Investments Ltd., citing a figure of about 18,300 dong per dollar. “When we know we’ve got a shipment coming in we’ve got to start accumulating dollars on a daily basis a week in advance.”

‘The Problem’

The full-year trade deficit is unlikely to exceed $8 billion, Ho Chi Minh City-based fund manager Dragon said this month. Last year’s record trade gap was an estimated $17.5 billion. Through July, exports weakened 13 percent to $32.35 billion while imports slumped 32 percent to $35.73 billion.

“The problem is that a lot of the imports in Vietnam are not for consumption, they’re adding to its productive capacity,” said Robinson. “So whenever imports are that weak it points to weak future exports.”

The decline in exports this year has been due to lower prices, as volumes have increased, Vinacapital Investment Management Ltd. said last week. Reduced foreign investment as international companies cut back amid a global recession may also be hurting overseas sales.

Balance of Payments

“Domestic enterprises have seen their exports remain steady,” Vinacapital said in a research note. “Foreign- invested enterprises have seen exports drop.”

A “steep” decline in imports is easing pressure on the country’s balance of payments, Moody’s Investors Service said last week.

Vietnam’s trade deficit in recent years as a percentage of the economy “far exceeds” those of other Southeast Asian nations before the region’s 1997 financial crisis, suggesting the gap is a potential threat, according to a study for the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation forum released this month.

Concern over Vietnam’s economic indicators increased last year as the trade deficit surged and inflation soared to 28.3 percent, the highest since at least 1992. This month’s slowdown in inflation was the 11th consecutive decline.

“Inflation will probably bottom in August at roughly 2 percent, as the fuel-price hike of last year drops out of the annual comparison,” wrote Prakriti Sofat, an economist at HSBC in Singapore, in a note today. “The State Bank of Vietnam is now getting concerned about rapid credit growth.”By Jason Folkmanis

July 24 (Bloomberg) -- Vietnam’s trade deficit narrowed, providing potential support for a currency hurt by concerns that stockpiling of dollars is making it difficult to pay for imports.

The trade gap shrank 78 percent in the seven months through July to $3.4 billion from $15.2 billion in the same period a year earlier, the General Statistics Office said in Hanoi today. Inflation eased this month to a five-year low of 3.3 percent.

Any re-widening of the trade deficit as the economy gathers steam would be a concern for the exchange rate of the dong, which is currently “fragile but stabile,” according to HSBC Holdings Plc. The prospect of a wider gap may be quickening the depreciation of the currency, Dragon Capital said this month.

“Figures like this shouldn’t serve as a catalyst to trigger a run on the currency,” said Matt Robinson, an economist at Moody’s Economy.com in Sydney. “We’re not at that threshold point. But the underlying issue and the specter of a run is a clear and present danger that Vietnam faces.”

The dong declined to a record low of 17,862 against the U.S. currency this week, using the so-called official rate. Steelmakers this month asked the government for help in getting hold of the dollars they need to pay for imports, according to the Vietnam Steel Association.

“You have to pay more than the official rate to get dollars,” said Alan Young, chief operating officer of Vietnam Industrial Investments Ltd., citing a figure of about 18,300 dong per dollar. “When we know we’ve got a shipment coming in we’ve got to start accumulating dollars on a daily basis a week in advance.”

‘The Problem’

The full-year trade deficit is unlikely to exceed $8 billion, Ho Chi Minh City-based fund manager Dragon said this month. Last year’s record trade gap was an estimated $17.5 billion. Through July, exports weakened 13 percent to $32.35 billion while imports slumped 32 percent to $35.73 billion.

“The problem is that a lot of the imports in Vietnam are not for consumption, they’re adding to its productive capacity,” said Robinson. “So whenever imports are that weak it points to weak future exports.”

The decline in exports this year has been due to lower prices, as volumes have increased, Vinacapital Investment Management Ltd. said last week. Reduced foreign investment as international companies cut back amid a global recession may also be hurting overseas sales.

Balance of Payments

“Domestic enterprises have seen their exports remain steady,” Vinacapital said in a research note. “Foreign- invested enterprises have seen exports drop.”

A “steep” decline in imports is easing pressure on the country’s balance of payments, Moody’s Investors Service said last week.

Vietnam’s trade deficit in recent years as a percentage of the economy “far exceeds” those of other Southeast Asian nations before the region’s 1997 financial crisis, suggesting the gap is a potential threat, according to a study for the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation forum released this month.

Concern over Vietnam’s economic indicators increased last year as the trade deficit surged and inflation soared to 28.3 percent, the highest since at least 1992. This month’s slowdown in inflation was the 11th consecutive decline.

“Inflation will probably bottom in August at roughly 2 percent, as the fuel-price hike of last year drops out of the annual comparison,” wrote Prakriti Sofat, an economist at HSBC in Singapore, in a note today. “The State Bank of Vietnam is now getting concerned about rapid credit growth.”By Jason Folkmanis

July 24 (Bloomberg) -- Vietnam’s trade deficit narrowed, providing potential support for a currency hurt by concerns that stockpiling of dollars is making it difficult to pay for imports.

The trade gap shrank 78 percent in the seven months through July to $3.4 billion from $15.2 billion in the same period a year earlier, the General Statistics Office said in Hanoi today. Inflation eased this month to a five-year low of 3.3 percent.

Any re-widening of the trade deficit as the economy gathers steam would be a concern for the exchange rate of the dong, which is currently “fragile but stabile,” according to HSBC Holdings Plc. The prospect of a wider gap may be quickening the depreciation of the currency, Dragon Capital said this month.

“Figures like this shouldn’t serve as a catalyst to trigger a run on the currency,” said Matt Robinson, an economist at Moody’s Economy.com in Sydney. “We’re not at that threshold point. But the underlying issue and the specter of a run is a clear and present danger that Vietnam faces.”

The dong declined to a record low of 17,862 against the U.S. currency this week, using the so-called official rate. Steelmakers this month asked the government for help in getting hold of the dollars they need to pay for imports, according to the Vietnam Steel Association.

“You have to pay more than the official rate to get dollars,” said Alan Young, chief operating officer of Vietnam Industrial Investments Ltd., citing a figure of about 18,300 dong per dollar. “When we know we’ve got a shipment coming in we’ve got to start accumulating dollars on a daily basis a week in advance.”

‘The Problem’

The full-year trade deficit is unlikely to exceed $8 billion, Ho Chi Minh City-based fund manager Dragon said this month. Last year’s record trade gap was an estimated $17.5 billion. Through July, exports weakened 13 percent to $32.35 billion while imports slumped 32 percent to $35.73 billion.

“The problem is that a lot of the imports in Vietnam are not for consumption, they’re adding to its productive capacity,” said Robinson. “So whenever imports are that weak it points to weak future exports.”

The decline in exports this year has been due to lower prices, as volumes have increased, Vinacapital Investment Management Ltd. said last week. Reduced foreign investment as international companies cut back amid a global recession may also be hurting overseas sales.

Balance of Payments

“Domestic enterprises have seen their exports remain steady,” Vinacapital said in a research note. “Foreign- invested enterprises have seen exports drop.”

A “steep” decline in imports is easing pressure on the country’s balance of payments, Moody’s Investors Service said last week.

Vietnam’s trade deficit in recent years as a percentage of the economy “far exceeds” those of other Southeast Asian nations before the region’s 1997 financial crisis, suggesting the gap is a potential threat, according to a study for the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation forum released this month.

Concern over Vietnam’s economic indicators increased last year as the trade deficit surged and inflation soared to 28.3 percent, the highest since at least 1992. This month’s slowdown in inflation was the 11th consecutive decline.

“Inflation will probably bottom in August at roughly 2 percent, as the fuel-price hike of last year drops out of the annual comparison,” wrote Prakriti Sofat, an economist at HSBC in Singapore, in a note today. “The State Bank of Vietnam is now getting concerned about rapid credit growth.”By Jason Folkmanis

July 24 (Bloomberg) -- Vietnam’s trade deficit narrowed, providing potential support for a currency hurt by concerns that stockpiling of dollars is making it difficult to pay for imports.

The trade gap shrank 78 percent in the seven months through July to $3.4 billion from $15.2 billion in the same period a year earlier, the General Statistics Office said in Hanoi today. Inflation eased this month to a five-year low of 3.3 percent.

Any re-widening of the trade deficit as the economy gathers steam would be a concern for the exchange rate of the dong, which is currently “fragile but stabile,” according to HSBC Holdings Plc. The prospect of a wider gap may be quickening the depreciation of the currency, Dragon Capital said this month.

“Figures like this shouldn’t serve as a catalyst to trigger a run on the currency,” said Matt Robinson, an economist at Moody’s Economy.com in Sydney. “We’re not at that threshold point. But the underlying issue and the specter of a run is a clear and present danger that Vietnam faces.”

The dong declined to a record low of 17,862 against the U.S. currency this week, using the so-called official rate. Steelmakers this month asked the government for help in getting hold of the dollars they need to pay for imports, according to the Vietnam Steel Association.

“You have to pay more than the official rate to get dollars,” said Alan Young, chief operating officer of Vietnam Industrial Investments Ltd., citing a figure of about 18,300 dong per dollar. “When we know we’ve got a shipment coming in we’ve got to start accumulating dollars on a daily basis a week in advance.”

‘The Problem’

The full-year trade deficit is unlikely to exceed $8 billion, Ho Chi Minh City-based fund manager Dragon said this month. Last year’s record trade gap was an estimated $17.5 billion. Through July, exports weakened 13 percent to $32.35 billion while imports slumped 32 percent to $35.73 billion.

“The problem is that a lot of the imports in Vietnam are not for consumption, they’re adding to its productive capacity,” said Robinson. “So whenever imports are that weak it points to weak future exports.”

The decline in exports this year has been due to lower prices, as volumes have increased, Vinacapital Investment Management Ltd. said last week. Reduced foreign investment as international companies cut back amid a global recession may also be hurting overseas sales.

Balance of Payments

“Domestic enterprises have seen their exports remain steady,” Vinacapital said in a research note. “Foreign- invested enterprises have seen exports drop.”

A “steep” decline in imports is easing pressure on the country’s balance of payments, Moody’s Investors Service said last week.

Vietnam’s trade deficit in recent years as a percentage of the economy “far exceeds” those of other Southeast Asian nations before the region’s 1997 financial crisis, suggesting the gap is a potential threat, according to a study for the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation forum released this month.

Concern over Vietnam’s economic indicators increased last year as the trade deficit surged and inflation soared to 28.3 percent, the highest since at least 1992. This month’s slowdown in inflation was the 11th consecutive decline.

“Inflation will probably bottom in August at roughly 2 percent, as the fuel-price hike of last year drops out of the annual comparison,” wrote Prakriti Sofat, an economist at HSBC in Singapore, in a note today. “The State Bank of Vietnam is now getting concerned about rapid credit growth.”By Jason Folkmanis

July 24 (Bloomberg) -- Vietnam’s trade deficit narrowed, providing potential support for a currency hurt by concerns that stockpiling of dollars is making it difficult to pay for imports.

The trade gap shrank 78 percent in the seven months through July to $3.4 billion from $15.2 billion in the same period a year earlier, the General Statistics Office said in Hanoi today. Inflation eased this month to a five-year low of 3.3 percent.

Any re-widening of the trade deficit as the economy gathers steam would be a concern for the exchange rate of the dong, which is currently “fragile but stabile,” according to HSBC Holdings Plc. The prospect of a wider gap may be quickening the depreciation of the currency, Dragon Capital said this month.

“Figures like this shouldn’t serve as a catalyst to trigger a run on the currency,” said Matt Robinson, an economist at Moody’s Economy.com in Sydney. “We’re not at that threshold point. But the underlying issue and the specter of a run is a clear and present danger that Vietnam faces.”

The dong declined to a record low of 17,862 against the U.S. currency this week, using the so-called official rate. Steelmakers this month asked the government for help in getting hold of the dollars they need to pay for imports, according to the Vietnam Steel Association.

“You have to pay more than the official rate to get dollars,” said Alan Young, chief operating officer of Vietnam Industrial Investments Ltd., citing a figure of about 18,300 dong per dollar. “When we know we’ve got a shipment coming in we’ve got to start accumulating dollars on a daily basis a week in advance.”

‘The Problem’

The full-year trade deficit is unlikely to exceed $8 billion, Ho Chi Minh City-based fund manager Dragon said this month. Last year’s record trade gap was an estimated $17.5 billion. Through July, exports weakened 13 percent to $32.35 billion while imports slumped 32 percent to $35.73 billion.

“The problem is that a lot of the imports in Vietnam are not for consumption, they’re adding to its productive capacity,” said Robinson. “So whenever imports are that weak it points to weak future exports.”

The decline in exports this year has been due to lower prices, as volumes have increased, Vinacapital Investment Management Ltd. said last week. Reduced foreign investment as international companies cut back amid a global recession may also be hurting overseas sales.

Balance of Payments

“Domestic enterprises have seen their exports remain steady,” Vinacapital said in a research note. “Foreign- invested enterprises have seen exports drop.”

A “steep” decline in imports is easing pressure on the country’s balance of payments, Moody’s Investors Service said last week.

Vietnam’s trade deficit in recent years as a percentage of the economy “far exceeds” those of other Southeast Asian nations before the region’s 1997 financial crisis, suggesting the gap is a potential threat, according to a study for the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation forum released this month.

Concern over Vietnam’s economic indicators increased last year as the trade deficit surged and inflation soared to 28.3 percent, the highest since at least 1992. This month’s slowdown in inflation was the 11th consecutive decline.

“Inflation will probably bottom in August at roughly 2 percent, as the fuel-price hike of last year drops out of the annual comparison,” wrote Prakriti Sofat, an economist at HSBC in Singapore, in a note today. “The State Bank of Vietnam is now getting concerned about rapid credit growth.”By Jason Folkmanis

July 24 (Bloomberg) -- Vietnam’s trade deficit narrowed, providing potential support for a currency hurt by concerns that stockpiling of dollars is making it difficult to pay for imports.

The trade gap shrank 78 percent in the seven months through July to $3.4 billion from $15.2 billion in the same period a year earlier, the General Statistics Office said in Hanoi today. Inflation eased this month to a five-year low of 3.3 percent.

Any re-widening of the trade deficit as the economy gathers steam would be a concern for the exchange rate of the dong, which is currently “fragile but stabile,” according to HSBC Holdings Plc. The prospect of a wider gap may be quickening the depreciation of the currency, Dragon Capital said this month.

“Figures like this shouldn’t serve as a catalyst to trigger a run on the currency,” said Matt Robinson, an economist at Moody’s Economy.com in Sydney. “We’re not at that threshold point. But the underlying issue and the specter of a run is a clear and present danger that Vietnam faces.”

The dong declined to a record low of 17,862 against the U.S. currency this week, using the so-called official rate. Steelmakers this month asked the government for help in getting hold of the dollars they need to pay for imports, according to the Vietnam Steel Association.

“You have to pay more than the official rate to get dollars,” said Alan Young, chief operating officer of Vietnam Industrial Investments Ltd., citing a figure of about 18,300 dong per dollar. “When we know we’ve got a shipment coming in we’ve got to start accumulating dollars on a daily basis a week in advance.”

‘The Problem’

The full-year trade deficit is unlikely to exceed $8 billion, Ho Chi Minh City-based fund manager Dragon said this month. Last year’s record trade gap was an estimated $17.5 billion. Through July, exports weakened 13 percent to $32.35 billion while imports slumped 32 percent to $35.73 billion.

“The problem is that a lot of the imports in Vietnam are not for consumption, they’re adding to its productive capacity,” said Robinson. “So whenever imports are that weak it points to weak future exports.”

The decline in exports this year has been due to lower prices, as volumes have increased, Vinacapital Investment Management Ltd. said last week. Reduced foreign investment as international companies cut back amid a global recession may also be hurting overseas sales.

Balance of Payments

“Domestic enterprises have seen their exports remain steady,” Vinacapital said in a research note. “Foreign- invested enterprises have seen exports drop.”

A “steep” decline in imports is easing pressure on the country’s balance of payments, Moody’s Investors Service said last week.

Vietnam’s trade deficit in recent years as a percentage of the economy “far exceeds” those of other Southeast Asian nations before the region’s 1997 financial crisis, suggesting the gap is a potential threat, according to a study for the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation forum released this month.

Concern over Vietnam’s economic indicators increased last year as the trade deficit surged and inflation soared to 28.3 percent, the highest since at least 1992. This month’s slowdown in inflation was the 11th consecutive decline.

“Inflation will probably bottom in August at roughly 2 percent, as the fuel-price hike of last year drops out of the annual comparison,” wrote Prakriti Sofat, an economist at HSBC in Singapore, in a note today. “The State Bank of Vietnam is now getting concerned about rapid credit growth.”By Jason Folkmanis

July 24 (Bloomberg) -- Vietnam’s trade deficit narrowed, providing potential support for a currency hurt by concerns that stockpiling of dollars is making it difficult to pay for imports.

The trade gap shrank 78 percent in the seven months through July to $3.4 billion from $15.2 billion in the same period a year earlier, the General Statistics Office said in Hanoi today. Inflation eased this month to a five-year low of 3.3 percent.

Any re-widening of the trade deficit as the economy gathers steam would be a concern for the exchange rate of the dong, which is currently “fragile but stabile,” according to HSBC Holdings Plc. The prospect of a wider gap may be quickening the depreciation of the currency, Dragon Capital said this month.

“Figures like this shouldn’t serve as a catalyst to trigger a run on the currency,” said Matt Robinson, an economist at Moody’s Economy.com in Sydney. “We’re not at that threshold point. But the underlying issue and the specter of a run is a clear and present danger that Vietnam faces.”

The dong declined to a record low of 17,862 against the U.S. currency this week, using the so-called official rate. Steelmakers this month asked the government for help in getting hold of the dollars they need to pay for imports, according to the Vietnam Steel Association.

“You have to pay more than the official rate to get dollars,” said Alan Young, chief operating officer of Vietnam Industrial Investments Ltd., citing a figure of about 18,300 dong per dollar. “When we know we’ve got a shipment coming in we’ve got to start accumulating dollars on a daily basis a week in advance.”

‘The Problem’

The full-year trade deficit is unlikely to exceed $8 billion, Ho Chi Minh City-based fund manager Dragon said this month. Last year’s record trade gap was an estimated $17.5 billion. Through July, exports weakened 13 percent to $32.35 billion while imports slumped 32 percent to $35.73 billion.

“The problem is that a lot of the imports in Vietnam are not for consumption, they’re adding to its productive capacity,” said Robinson. “So whenever imports are that weak it points to weak future exports.”

The decline in exports this year has been due to lower prices, as volumes have increased, Vinacapital Investment Management Ltd. said last week. Reduced foreign investment as international companies cut back amid a global recession may also be hurting overseas sales.

Balance of Payments

“Domestic enterprises have seen their exports remain steady,” Vinacapital said in a research note. “Foreign- invested enterprises have seen exports drop.”

A “steep” decline in imports is easing pressure on the country’s balance of payments, Moody’s Investors Service said last week.

Vietnam’s trade deficit in recent years as a percentage of the economy “far exceeds” those of other Southeast Asian nations before the region’s 1997 financial crisis, suggesting the gap is a potential threat, according to a study for the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation forum released this month.

Concern over Vietnam’s economic indicators increased last year as the trade deficit surged and inflation soared to 28.3 percent, the highest since at least 1992. This month’s slowdown in inflation was the 11th consecutive decline.

“Inflation will probably bottom in August at roughly 2 percent, as the fuel-price hike of last year drops out of the annual comparison,” wrote Prakriti Sofat, an economist at HSBC in Singapore, in a note today. “The State Bank of Vietnam is now getting concerned about rapid credit growth.”By Jason Folkmanis

July 24 (Bloomberg) -- Vietnam’s trade deficit narrowed, providing potential support for a currency hurt by concerns that stockpiling of dollars is making it difficult to pay for imports.

The trade gap shrank 78 percent in the seven months through July to $3.4 billion from $15.2 billion in the same period a year earlier, the General Statistics Office said in Hanoi today. Inflation eased this month to a five-year low of 3.3 percent.

Any re-widening of the trade deficit as the economy gathers steam would be a concern for the exchange rate of the dong, which is currently “fragile but stabile,” according to HSBC Holdings Plc. The prospect of a wider gap may be quickening the depreciation of the currency, Dragon Capital said this month.

“Figures like this shouldn’t serve as a catalyst to trigger a run on the currency,” said Matt Robinson, an economist at Moody’s Economy.com in Sydney. “We’re not at that threshold point. But the underlying issue and the specter of a run is a clear and present danger that Vietnam faces.”

The dong declined to a record low of 17,862 against the U.S. currency this week, using the so-called official rate. Steelmakers this month asked the government for help in getting hold of the dollars they need to pay for imports, according to the Vietnam Steel Association.

“You have to pay more than the official rate to get dollars,” said Alan Young, chief operating officer of Vietnam Industrial Investments Ltd., citing a figure of about 18,300 dong per dollar. “When we know we’ve got a shipment coming in we’ve got to start accumulating dollars on a daily basis a week in advance.”

‘The Problem’

The full-year trade deficit is unlikely to exceed $8 billion, Ho Chi Minh City-based fund manager Dragon said this month. Last year’s record trade gap was an estimated $17.5 billion. Through July, exports weakened 13 percent to $32.35 billion while imports slumped 32 percent to $35.73 billion.

“The problem is that a lot of the imports in Vietnam are not for consumption, they’re adding to its productive capacity,” said Robinson. “So whenever imports are that weak it points to weak future exports.”

The decline in exports this year has been due to lower prices, as volumes have increased, Vinacapital Investment Management Ltd. said last week. Reduced foreign investment as international companies cut back amid a global recession may also be hurting overseas sales.

Balance of Payments

“Domestic enterprises have seen their exports remain steady,” Vinacapital said in a research note. “Foreign- invested enterprises have seen exports drop.”

A “steep” decline in imports is easing pressure on the country’s balance of payments, Moody’s Investors Service said last week.

Vietnam’s trade deficit in recent years as a percentage of the economy “far exceeds” those of other Southeast Asian nations before the region’s 1997 financial crisis, suggesting the gap is a potential threat, according to a study for the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation forum released this month.

Concern over Vietnam’s economic indicators increased last year as the trade deficit surged and inflation soared to 28.3 percent, the highest since at least 1992. This month’s slowdown in inflation was the 11th consecutive decline.

“Inflation will probably bottom in August at roughly 2 percent, as the fuel-price hike of last year drops out of the annual comparison,” wrote Prakriti Sofat, an economist at HSBC in Singapore, in a note today. “The State Bank of Vietnam is now getting concerned about rapid credit growth.”By Jason Folkmanis

July 24 (Bloomberg) -- Vietnam’s trade deficit narrowed, providing potential support for a currency hurt by concerns that stockpiling of dollars is making it difficult to pay for imports.

The trade gap shrank 78 percent in the seven months through July to $3.4 billion from $15.2 billion in the same period a year earlier, the General Statistics Office said in Hanoi today. Inflation eased this month to a five-year low of 3.3 percent.

Any re-widening of the trade deficit as the economy gathers steam would be a concern for the exchange rate of the dong, which is currently “fragile but stabile,” according to HSBC Holdings Plc. The prospect of a wider gap may be quickening the depreciation of the currency, Dragon Capital said this month.

“Figures like this shouldn’t serve as a catalyst to trigger a run on the currency,” said Matt Robinson, an economist at Moody’s Economy.com in Sydney. “We’re not at that threshold point. But the underlying issue and the specter of a run is a clear and present danger that Vietnam faces.”

The dong declined to a record low of 17,862 against the U.S. currency this week, using the so-called official rate. Steelmakers this month asked the government for help in getting hold of the dollars they need to pay for imports, according to the Vietnam Steel Association.

“You have to pay more than the official rate to get dollars,” said Alan Young, chief operating officer of Vietnam Industrial Investments Ltd., citing a figure of about 18,300 dong per dollar. “When we know we’ve got a shipment coming in we’ve got to start accumulating dollars on a daily basis a week in advance.”

‘The Problem’

The full-year trade deficit is unlikely to exceed $8 billion, Ho Chi Minh City-based fund manager Dragon said this month. Last year’s record trade gap was an estimated $17.5 billion. Through July, exports weakened 13 percent to $32.35 billion while imports slumped 32 percent to $35.73 billion.

“The problem is that a lot of the imports in Vietnam are not for consumption, they’re adding to its productive capacity,” said Robinson. “So whenever imports are that weak it points to weak future exports.”

The decline in exports this year has been due to lower prices, as volumes have increased, Vinacapital Investment Management Ltd. said last week. Reduced foreign investment as international companies cut back amid a global recession may also be hurting overseas sales.

Balance of Payments

“Domestic enterprises have seen their exports remain steady,” Vinacapital said in a research note. “Foreign- invested enterprises have seen exports drop.”

A “steep” decline in imports is easing pressure on the country’s balance of payments, Moody’s Investors Service said last week.

Vietnam’s trade deficit in recent years as a percentage of the economy “far exceeds” those of other Southeast Asian nations before the region’s 1997 financial crisis, suggesting the gap is a potential threat, according to a study for the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation forum released this month.

Concern over Vietnam’s economic indicators increased last year as the trade deficit surged and inflation soared to 28.3 percent, the highest since at least 1992. This month’s slowdown in inflation was the 11th consecutive decline.

“Inflation will probably bottom in August at roughly 2 percent, as the fuel-price hike of last year drops out of the annual comparison,” wrote Prakriti Sofat, an economist at HSBC in Singapore, in a note today. “The State Bank of Vietnam is now getting concerned about rapid credit growth.”By Jason Folkmanis

July 24 (Bloomberg) -- Vietnam’s trade deficit narrowed, providing potential support for a currency hurt by concerns that stockpiling of dollars is making it difficult to pay for imports.

The trade gap shrank 78 percent in the seven months through July to $3.4 billion from $15.2 billion in the same period a year earlier, the General Statistics Office said in Hanoi today. Inflation eased this month to a five-year low of 3.3 percent.

Any re-widening of the trade deficit as the economy gathers steam would be a concern for the exchange rate of the dong, which is currently “fragile but stabile,” according to HSBC Holdings Plc. The prospect of a wider gap may be quickening the depreciation of the currency, Dragon Capital said this month.

“Figures like this shouldn’t serve as a catalyst to trigger a run on the currency,” said Matt Robinson, an economist at Moody’s Economy.com in Sydney. “We’re not at that threshold point. But the underlying issue and the specter of a run is a clear and present danger that Vietnam faces.”

The dong declined to a record low of 17,862 against the U.S. currency this week, using the so-called official rate. Steelmakers this month asked the government for help in getting hold of the dollars they need to pay for imports, according to the Vietnam Steel Association.

“You have to pay more than the official rate to get dollars,” said Alan Young, chief operating officer of Vietnam Industrial Investments Ltd., citing a figure of about 18,300 dong per dollar. “When we know we’ve got a shipment coming in we’ve got to start accumulating dollars on a daily basis a week in advance.”

‘The Problem’

The full-year trade deficit is unlikely to exceed $8 billion, Ho Chi Minh City-based fund manager Dragon said this month. Last year’s record trade gap was an estimated $17.5 billion. Through July, exports weakened 13 percent to $32.35 billion while imports slumped 32 percent to $35.73 billion.

“The problem is that a lot of the imports in Vietnam are not for consumption, they’re adding to its productive capacity,” said Robinson. “So whenever imports are that weak it points to weak future exports.”

The decline in exports this year has been due to lower prices, as volumes have increased, Vinacapital Investment Management Ltd. said last week. Reduced foreign investment as international companies cut back amid a global recession may also be hurting overseas sales.

Balance of Payments

“Domestic enterprises have seen their exports remain steady,” Vinacapital said in a research note. “Foreign- invested enterprises have seen exports drop.”

A “steep” decline in imports is easing pressure on the country’s balance of payments, Moody’s Investors Service said last week.

Vietnam’s trade deficit in recent years as a percentage of the economy “far exceeds” those of other Southeast Asian nations before the region’s 1997 financial crisis, suggesting the gap is a potential threat, according to a study for the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation forum released this month.

Concern over Vietnam’s economic indicators increased last year as the trade deficit surged and inflation soared to 28.3 percent, the highest since at least 1992. This month’s slowdown in inflation was the 11th consecutive decline.

“Inflation will probably bottom in August at roughly 2 percent, as the fuel-price hike of last year drops out of the annual comparison,” wrote Prakriti Sofat, an economist at HSBC in Singapore, in a note today. “The State Bank of Vietnam is now getting concerned about rapid credit growth.”

Heavy rain hits north Vietnam, Hanoi traffic halted

HANOI, July 20 (Reuters) - Heavy rain from a weakened tropical storm has hit northern Vietnam, causing flooding that brought traffic to a halt in the capital Hanoi and prompted the government to warn of landslides in mountainous areas.

Tropical storm Molave made landfall on Saturday along the southern coast of China, where it weakened before dumping torrential rain across Vietnam's northern mountainous provinces from late Sunday, the national weather centre said.

Provincial authorities should inspect residential areas facing a high risk of landslides and flash floods so they can be active in preventive measures, the government said in a report.

Floods and landslides early this month have killed 34 people and damaged hundreds of homes in seven northern provinces, an area also affected by Sunday's rain.

Up to 120 mm (4.7 inches) of rain also fell in the rush hour on Monday in Hanoi, knocking down trees and submerging streets, witnesses said. Traffic was chaotic at intersections, with flood waters hip-high in some areas, they said.

Flooding has become more frequent in Hanoi as the road and the drainage systems struggle to accommodate a rising population.

VietinBank shares slump on debut, still above IPO

* VietinBank shares fall maximum allowed on debut

* Still above December's IPO price but may fall further (Updates with market close, analyst's comment)

By Ho Binh Minh

HANOI, July 16 (Reuters) - Shares in VietinBank CTG.HM, Vietnam's fourth-largest lender by assets, fell the maximum allowed 20 percent from the starting level set by the bank on their stock market debut on Thursday.

However, the shares in the Hanoi-based bank were still double the average price of 20,265 dong at in its initial public offering (IPO) last December, and above the most recent prices on the unofficial and unregulated grey market.

The shares opened at 44,000 dong on the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange and closed down 19.8 percent at 40,100 dong after touching the floor of 40,000 dong. That compares with the starting price of 50,000 dong set by the bank.

Dealers said the bank had set the opening price too high.

"The drop is fortunate for the market, because even at 40,000 dong per share the stock is overpriced," a trader at Baoviet Securities in Hanoi said.

The overall market was firm, with the benchmark VN Index .VNI closing 1.5 percent up at 433.47 points. It has risen 37.3 percent this year.

"The index should have risen more but VietinBank shares put a brake on it," said Tran Ngoc Tu, an independent market analyst.

"VietinBank shares will fall further, back to the IPO level if there is no good news," Tu said. "The bank's competitiveness is weak. It still relies on the state."

The state owned a dominant 89.23 percent stake as of July 3, its prospectus said. It listed 121.21 million shares on Thursday, 10.77 percent of its total.

The bank has said it would cut state ownership to 70 percent next year and sell 10 percent to strategic foreign investors.

It raised $64 million by selling a 4 percent stake in the IPO on Dec. 26. [ID:nHAN412752]

Companies in Vietnam often have their IPOs some time before they make their stock market debut.

They are then allowed to set the price at which the shares are first listed, and the stock is allowed to move 20 percent up or down that day, wider than the normal daily trading band of 5 percent.

38,000-39,000 dong on the grey market in May and early June before the bank applied for a listing licence.

Shares in VietinBank, or the Vietnam Bank for Industry and Trade, have joined those of major financial companies such as Vietnam's top insurer Bao Viet Holdings BVH.HM and leading partly private lender Vietcombank VCB.HM on the market.

Vietcombank also set its starting price at 50,000 dong for its June 30 debut but its shares proved more popular and jumped by the maximum 20 percent on the day. They have since fallen back and ended at 49,800 dong on Thursday. ($1=17,804 dong) (Editing by Alan Raybould and Lincoln Feast)

Want to predict the weather? Watch the dragonflies

HANOI, July 16 (Reuters Life!) - Can dragonflies warn of impending rain? Can you predict the weather by looking at the colour of a cloud or by observing animals? For generations of Vietnamese farmers and fishermen, the answer is yes.

Although the weather in Vietnam is forecast using hi-tech satellite imaging, many communities still predict floods, storms and drought the traditional way -- by tracking nature.

For example, in a drought prone area of the coastal Ninh Thuan province, farmers believe that if the dragonfly flies high it will be sunny and if it flies low there will be rain.

In north-central Thua Thien Hue Province, fishermen are likely to bring their boats back to the shore if, in January or February, they look to the north and see a silver cloud that quickly disappears, as it is a sign of cold weather.

Many of these beliefs, which are kept alive through proverbs, folk songs and legends and which have so far been passed down orally, are now being recorded by a group of aid agencies in the Southeast Asian country as part of a project to see whether they still hold true in times of rapid climate change.

"The communities know a lot about disaster adaptation and the question now, in Vietnam, is to see if this indigenous knowledge is still accurate or not with the climate changing very quickly," Guillaume Chantry, project coordinator of Development Workshop France (DWF), told Reuters.

Climate change is expected to hit low-lying Vietnam hard.

In April, the Asian Development Bank said by the end of this century, Vietnam's rice production could dramatically decline while rising sea levels could submerge tens of thousands of hectares of cropland and uproot thousands of families living in coastal communities.

For the next two months, a group of agencies led by DWF will visit 10 disaster-prone areas from the mountainous north to the steamy Mekong delta in the south to collect information about traditional beliefs in the hope it could be used in programmes to reduce the risk of natural disasters.

Dr. Ben Wisner, a hazards expert at Oberlin College, Ohio and London's University College, says indigenous knowledge can help make disaster prevention programmes more effective by pinpointing areas that are vulnerable to flooding and which are not visible on satellite images or official maps.

The idea of using local knowledge to create better ways to adapt to climate change and reduce the risk of natural disasters is slowly gaining ground as experts, scientists and aid workers scramble to find ways of predicting and dealing with the threat.

Critics dismiss traditional ways of reading the weather as backward and old-fashioned.

But, according to a U.N. report, during the devastating 2004 tsunami, the Moken nomads on the coast of Thailand were among other Asian communities that were largely spared, because they noticed the change in environment, using knowledge passed down through generations, and fled to higher ground.

"It's important for us practitioners to know how communities usually protect themselves," Chantry said.

Vietnam Urges Lenders to Tighten Credit

Vietnam's central bank said it is encouraging lenders to tighten credit for some borrowers in one of the first signs Asian economies are readying to rein in stimulus spending if the world economy continues to recover.

Like the U.S., China, Vietnam and other Asian nations have flooded their economies with cash over the past six months to avoid a deep recession. But as evidence mounts that the worst stage of the downturn is ending, many economists are advising governments to start curtailing credit lest some sectors overheat and trigger serious inflation problems in 2010 or beyond.

Economists are particularly concerned about Vietnam, a favorite of foreign investors in Asia that has experienced serious trouble with asset bubbles in the recent past, including a period when inflation soared to 28% in mid-2008. Although inflation is now below 4%, many analysts worry the government has gone too far to stimulate growth by subsidizing hefty bank lending programs that are feeding more money into the economy. Real estate and stock prices already have started to climb rapidly.

On Wednesday, State Bank of Vietnam Governor Nguyen Van Giau appeared to confirm those fears by saying the central bank wants local credit institutions to tighten lending to real estate and stock investors, as well as to consumers. He said lenders should focus instead on extending loans to small- and medium-sized enterprises to boost their production, and to major state-owned projects. Further details on the potential tightening, which appeared in a statement published in the central bank's Thoi Bao Ngan Hang newspaper, were not available.

"I think the key reason behind the central bank's comment is that it wants Vietnam to avoid high inflation," said Nguyen Duy Hung, chief executive of Saigon Securities Inc., a Ho Chi Minh City-based securities company.

Since the beginning of the global economic crisis, Vietnamese state banks have poured at least $19 billion in loans into the economy, equivalent to about one-fifth of the country's annual gross domestic product, as part of a broader stimulus program aimed at expanding credit for state enterprises and exporters. Partly as a result of the stimulus efforts, total outstanding loans in Vietnam's banking system at the end of June were 17% higher than at the end of 2008, and 17.5% more than a year earlier, the government said this month.

Unfortunately, economists say, it's hard for the government to police borrowers to know exactly how they are using the stimulus money. Many analysts suspect that large sums are leaking into activities the government doesn't want to stimulate, with borrowers taking money to speculate in stocks or real estate rather than investing in new productive capacity, though proving they are doing so is difficult. Since March, Vietnam's benchmark stock index is up more than 70%.

"I think it's the right decision" to begin reining in credit to some parts of the economy to make sure the money is used wisely, says Vu Thanh Tu Anh, an economist with the Fulbright Economics Teaching Program in Ho Chi Minh City. It may difficult to do so, he said, unless policymakers take more concrete steps such as putting a cap on loan growth or raising interest rates. Asian governments remain wary of taking those kinds of steps because they are still uncertain about the outlook, despite recent signs of economic recovery.

Either way, the pressure to wind down some stimulus packages is growing. In a report released Wednesday, HSBC economists warned that "money's too loose in Asia" and raised the specter of new asset bubbles, especially in real estate. Although Asian countries generally aren't tightening credit yet, "it won't be long, I suspect" before they start doing so on a more widespread basis, says Tim Condon, an economist at ING in Singapore.

Wall Street Journal

Vietnam flood toll hits 28: officials

HANOI (AFP) — The death toll from flooding and landslides in mountainous northern Vietnam has risen to at least 28, authorities have said.

Most of the deaths were in Bac Kan and Lai Chau provinces, said the National Flood and Storm Control Committee, updating its previous figure of at least 22 deaths since heavy rains began on Friday.

Thanh Nien newspaper quoted Trieu Kiem Vang, a farmer in Bac Kan's Khen Len hamlet, as saying his two sons, their wives and two granddaughters were buried in a landslide.

There were also deaths in Cao Bang, Son La, Lao Cai and Ha Giang provinces, the flood committee said, listing three people as missing.

The storms destroyed nine bridges, flooded hundreds of houses and about 600 hectares (1,480 acres) of cropland, authorities said.

Security forces are assisting in the aid and rescue effort, state television reported.

Vietnam's flood and storm season generally starts in July and lasts until November.

Last year at least 550 people died in disasters triggered by bad weather, the national statistics office said earlier.

Copyright © 2009 AFP. All rights reserved.

Vietnam's Sacombank H1 gross profit jumps 20 pct

HANOI, July 8 (Reuters) - Vietnam's Sacombank STB.HM, 10 percent owned by Australia's ANZ (ANZ.AX), said its first-half gross profit reached 905 billion dong ($51 million), up 20 percent from a year earlier, thanks to strong lending.

Sacombank, the country's sixth-largest lender by assets, said in a statement on Wednesday that its loans totalled 47.64 trillion dong at the end of June, up 36 percent from the end of last year.

The Ho Chi Minh City-based lender said its bad debt fell to 0.71 percent of loans last month from 0.76 percent in April.

Sacombank's credit growth in the first half was nearly double that in the entire Vietnamese banking system, which the central bank estimated at 17.01 percent. [ID:nHAN357450]

The lender's total assets reached 82.76 trillion dong at the end of June, 21 percent higher than at the end of 2008.

The World Bank's International Finance Corp, Dragon Capital and ANZ Bank together own 30 percent of Sacombank, the ceiling for foreign ownership of listed banks in Vietnam.

Sacombank has forecast that its gross profit would rise 47 percent this year to 1.6 trillion dong after a fall in 2008. [ID:nHAN369575].

Sacombank shares closed up 0.85 percent at 35,300 dong. ($1=17,760 dong)